The Solarium

Pakistan's Floods-Photo by the UK's DFID

The strategic implications of our recent poll of public opinion in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) are many and layered, but taken together, should point Washington toward a policy capable of meeting a broader set of U.S. interests in the region.

Our research found a few key things. First, that the residents of FATA do not really like foreigners fighting on their territory. This goes nearly as much for al-Qaeda as it does for the U.S. military. Second, we found that the most pressing issues for the people of the region are economic--jobs, transportation, water/sanitation, and health care all rank higher than security concerns. Third, we found that a Pakistan-led effort to route al-Qaeda and the Taliban would be welcome, as would civilian U.S. assistance on development. 

The RAND Corporation a few months ago released a study that demonstrated something that ought to be obvious: 80 percent of insurgencies end when the state sponsoring those insurgencies stops its support. Washington has been loathe to admit Pakistani support for the Taliban, an open-secret that Bob Woodward's latest, Obama's Wars, makes clear this administration is very aware of and working to end. Clearly this is essential.

But it is also maddeningly difficult. Pakistan's support for the Taliban stems from its strategic posture toward's India, a perceived enemy that not only haunts the living memories of much of Islamabad's leadership, but India is also an idea that gives the powerful Pakistani military its rationale for power. De-escalating its eastern border would severely undercut the Army's primacy and at the same time put catastrophic pressure on the enfeebled civilian political parties to step up and provide good governance. The recent floods provided the civilian government a moment to shine and earn the respect of its citizens, a test they failed in tragic fashion. 

As a result, Washington's options seem to hinge on India. India is a global power with good reason not to want to be defined by its South Asian neighbors. Unfortunately, those neighbors are all to capable of pulling India into a military confrontation on a number of fronts. Pakistan-inspired militancy is on the rise in Kashmir while Lashkar-e-Taiyyba, the organization that perpetrated the Mumbai attacks, is gaining connections to al-Qaeda and safe havens along the Durand Line. 

America's diplomacy with India cannot and should not focus on Afghanistan-Pakistan. For India and for the the United States, the larger strategic concern has to do with preventing great power conflict over energy, raw materials and water over the coming decades. Over the next twenty years India will be moving 250 million people from the countryside into the cities; China will be moving 450 million into its cities. The United States will be growing by 100 million between now and 2050. With commodity prices nearly as high as just before the sub-prime crisis hit in 2007, with droughts and floods wreaking havoc on agriculture and water supplies, America must find common cause with India and China in order to fashion a durable transition to a more sustainable world order. 

China may or may not want to play in such a grand alliance. But India and America's interests line up almost in lock step. Jointly leading a global transition to a sustainable world order ought to be dominating our strategic conversation with India. But India needs to know that our two great democracies share a common threat in Pakistan's continued, if ambiguous, support for the Taliban and specifically for the Haqqani network that protects al-Qaeda. And India needs to step up, be the responsible global leader it is and work to end the hostility that permeates its relations with Pakistan. Cooperation will be more disarming than confrontation, trade in goods more effective that the tradecraft of intelligence services.

Pakistan is teetering on the brink of economic and political chaos after the floods. It's northern and western areas are in rebellion. Pakistan needs to turn inward and focus on becoming a capable state. Confronting perceived enemies with scarce resources serves no one's ends.